agrinsted

The life and science of Aslak Grinsted

More and Stronger Hurricane surges

I thought I would share this quite illustration on how to interpret changes in return period/return magnitude plots.
Data on hurricane surges along the US Atlantic and gulf coasts indicate that more and stronger hurricane activity in globally warm years.

Our statistical model used for projection of hurricane surge threat also finds this relationship.
Note: that if you focus only on the most rare, and most intense events then you will not be able to tell the difference between “more intense” and “more frequent”.
Consensus?
There is a consensus on “stronger” hurricanes in a warmer world, but not a consensus on “more” (see e.g. discussion here). It should be noted that fewer but stronger hurricanes, is not necessarily incompatible with more and stronger hurricane surges.

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